Link to press release of 27 October 2022.
Summary
There are three scenarios, based on different government policies:
- Stated Policies (STEPS)
- Announced Pledges (APS)
- Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)
Descriptions
- Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): the trajectory implied by today’s policy settings.
- Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full,
including their long‐term net zero and energy access goals. - Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE): maps out a way to achieve a 1.5 °C stabilisation in the rise in global average temperatures by 2050, alongside universal access to modern energy by 2030.
Overview
From IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022:
Gt = gigatonnes. Temperature rise is relative to pre-industrial levels.
Changes
The main changes from the IEA’s 2021 Outlook are the result of:
- Updates to policy changes:
- Including new net zero emissions pledges, notably by India and in Southeast Asia, resulting in 8 Gt CO2 less in 2050 in the APS scenario.
- Updates to economic conditions and trading patterns, significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war.