Outlook to 2040 using key drivers, four scenarios and a crisis typology.

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Contents

1. Aid, aid system and aid actors
2. Introduction
3. Project overview
4. The state of the aid system in 2025: a causal layered analysis
5. Foresight base: an outlook to 2040
6. Scenarios
7. 2040 scenario matrix
8. Conclusion

Key drivers

1. Blocs: cooperation versus fragmentation.
2. Networks: cooperation versus fragmentation.

Scenarios

1. Aid on many paths.
2. Patchwork solidarities.
3. Empires of aid.
4. The great unravelling.

Types of crisis

1. Erosive crisis.
2. Weaponised crisis.
3. Technocratic fallout.
4. Protracted collapse.
5. Persecution and disenfranchisement.
6. Strategic abandonment.
7. Ecosystemic crises.