Outlook to 2050 using seven climate scenarios across four quadrants.

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Key drivers

1. Physical risks (climate events): low to high.
2. Transition risks (changes in policies, technologies and preferences): low to high.

Scenarios

Seven scenarios across four quadrants:

1. Orderly.
   • Below 2°C.*
   • Net zero 2050 (1.5°C).
   • Low demand.
2. Disorderly.
   • Delayed transition.
3. Hot house world.
   • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): pledged targets.
   • Current policies.
4. Too little too late.
   • Fragmented world.

* Temperature changes are at 2100. Start date is unstated.

Comparison of NGFS scenarios

NGFS states that these long-term scenarios are not easily comparable to its short-term scenarios. However the long-term Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) scenario is comparable to the near-term Baseline.

Related outlooks

NGFS long-term scenarios are used by the Climate Financial Risk Forum’s Online Climate Scenario Narrative Tool.