Outlook to 2035 using five macroeconomic scenarios and three tariff scenarios.

Link to publication and interactive tool

Contents

1. Introduction.
2. Balance and trust to thrive.
3. How did the world get here?
4. Scenarios for a transition to a new era.
5. Two routes to higher trust and a thriving economy.
6. Two sideways moves.
7. A route that challenges trust and the ability to thrive.
8. Signposts on the journey.

Key drivers

1. Balance
   • Freedom and fairness, deficits and surpluses, distribution of production and consumption.
   • International, national, corporate, household.
2. Trust
   • Trust in government, media, business and non-governmental organizations.
   • Economic optimism, grievances.
   • Data, capital, trade and people flows.

Macroeconomic scenarios

1. Productivity acceleration.
2. US fiscal reset.
3. No real disruption.
4. Central banks tighten.
5. Global tensions escalate.

Global tariff scenarios

1. Low.
2. Medium.
3. High.

Related publications

Three of the above five macroeconomic scenarios were used in McKinsey’s How might tariffs affect the energy transition?