Outlook to 2040 using four scenarios.

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Contents

1. Introduction
2. Drivers of China’s Middle East and North Africa Strategy in 2025
3. Case Studies
4. Future Scenarios: China’s Middle East and North Africa Strategy in 2040
5. Conclusions

Key drivers for scenarios

1. Economic engagement: low to high.
2. Defence engagement: low to high.

Scenarios

1. Xi Jinping (re)Thought: most likely.
2. The Middle (East) Kingdom.
3. Stumbling China.
4. From the Barrel of a Gun: least likely.