Outlook to 2030 using 10 main threats, 46 trends across five dimensions, and five scenarios based on five randomly selected trends.

Link to publication (second version)

Link to publication (first version) (29 March 2023)

Contents

1. Introduction
2. Threats
3. Trends
4. Scenarios

Threats

1. Supply chain compromise of software dependencies.
2. Advanced disinformation/influence operations (IO) campaigns.
3. Rise of digital surveillance authoritarianism/loss of privacy.
4. Human error and exploited legacy systems within cyber-physical ecosystems.
5. Targeted attacks (e.g. ransomware) enhanced by smart device data.
6. Lack of analysis and control of space-based infrastructure and objects.
7. Rise of advanced hybrid threats.
8. Skill shortages.
9. Cross-border ict service providers as a single point of failure.
10. Abuse of AI.
11. Additional threats.

Scenarios

No key drivers. Based on five randomly selected trends.

1. Blockchain, deepfakes and cybercrime in a data-rich environment.
2. Eco-friendly, sustainable, and interconnected smart cities (non-state actors).
3. More data, less control.
4. Sustainable energy, automated/short-term workforce.
5. Legislation, bias, extinctions and global threats.