Potential trajectories of the global international order using four scenarios.

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Contents

1. Globalization’s success: Shifting the center of gravity
2. The price of success: How the success of globalization led to backlash in the West
3. Rise of the Global South: From rule-takers to rule-makers
4. From global village to archipelagos? Scenarios for the future of globalization
5. Navigating the shift

Scenario drivers

1. Geopolitics: Pax Americana to contested multipolarity.
2. Geoeconomics: maximization of scalability to fragmentation.

Scenarios

1. Competitive multilateralism.
2. Regionalism.
3. Multipolarism.
4. Hegemonial rivalry.