Link to bp’s press release of 30 January 2023.

Link to bp’s Energy Outlook microsite.

Summary

There are three scenarios, based on different types of policy and collective world action:

• New Momentum: higher CO₂e* emissions (relative to other scenarios).
• Accelerated: intermediate CO₂e emissions.
• Net Zero: lower CO₂e emissions.

* CO₂ equivalent, including other greenhouse gases.

Gt = gigatonnes

Descriptions

• New Momentum: the broad trajectory along which the global energy system is currently travelling, including new momentum towards CO₂e reductions. Results in a reduction of 2019 CO₂e emissions by around 30% by 2050.
• Accelerated: collective world action to reduce 2019 CO₂e emissions by 75% by 2050.
• Net Zero: collective world action to reduce 2019 CO₂e emissions by 95% by 2050.

Overview

From bp’s Energy Outlook 2023:

Changes

bp states that the main changes from its 2022 scenarios are the result of:

• The Russia-Ukraine war:
  • Long-lasting effects on the global energy system.
  • A downward revision in the outlook for global GDP and energy demand.
  • A shift towards a more local energy mix, reducing the role of oil and gas imports.
• The US Inflation Reduction Act:
  • Significant support for low-carbon energy and technologies in the US.