Analysis
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A storm of climate change scenarios
None show up for over four billion years, then hundreds arrive at once. Which ones should we use?
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IPCC’s 2023 climate scenarios
A summary of the main six scenarios used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 2023 Synthesis Report.
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bp’s Energy Outlook 2023 scenarios
A summary of bp’s 2023 scenarios: Accelerated, New Momentum and Net Zero.
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IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 scenarios
A summary of IEA’s 2022 scenarios: Stated Policies, Announced Policies and Net Zero by 2050.
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NGFS’s 2022 climate change scenarios
A summary of NGFS’s updated six climate change scenarios. NGFS is the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System.
Publications
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Does it matter how much the United States reduces its carbon dioxide emissions if China doesn’t do the same?
‘Yes’, according to the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, making what it calls ‘physical’ and ‘fairness’ arguments.
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AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023
‘Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for all.’
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Scenario Analysis Guide for Banks
One of a number of CFRF guides to help the UK’s financial sector develop its approach to climate-related financial risks and opportunities.
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Scenarios for central banks and supervisors
In this third vintage, the NGFS scenarios have been brought up to date, including the most recent country-level climate commitments made at the COP26 in 2021, and the latest GDP and population pathways. NGFS is the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System.
Tools
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Climate Change Indicators Dashboard
A statistical tool linking climate considerations and global economic indicators.
