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Seismic shifts: The reordering of global power
Potential trajectories of the global international order using four scenarios. Link to publication Contents Scenario drivers Scenarios
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Country risk
Medium/long-term risk for export transactions, closely associated with OECD’s country risk classification.
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Roadmap to Net-Zero Aligned Carbon Market Regulation
Six key pillars for the design or reform of the regulation of carbon markets.
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Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Next Chapter
Four scenarios for the trajectory of the war.
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War in the Twenty-First Century
Seven interlocking themes about key aspects of modern warfare.
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How Beijing might rule the South China Sea within a decade
‘Backcasting’ from an imaginary scenario in 1935.
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Rethinking the Threat: Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan
Four main considerations that make an invasion of Taiwan politically and militarily dangerous for the PRC leadership.
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Scenarios for the Israeli Occupation of Palestine
Outlook for the next 5-10 years using four scenarios.
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The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth
Outlook to 2047 using Office for National Statistics figures with three variants.
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Competitiveness in 2030
Outlook to 2030 using four scenarios, two key drivers and 12 sectors.
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The Israel-Iran war: Scenarios for the days – and years – ahead
Six scenarios that could extend from the short-term into the long-term.
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Scenarios That Could Define 2035
Three CSIS scenarios with remarks from internal/external commentators. Link to publication Scenarios
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India in the Evolving Geopolitics of Asia: Four Scenarios and Strategic Options
Five to 10 year outlook for India using four scenarios and three to five strategic options in each scenario.
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The Evolving Dynamics of China’s Middle East and North Africa Strategy
Outlook to 2040 using four scenarios. Link to publication Contents Key drivers for scenarios Scenarios
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EU capabilities in space: Scenarios for space security by 2050
Outlook to 2050 using four scenarios.
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Competing visions of international order
Responses by 11 key countries to US power in a fracturing world.
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Thinking Through Protracted War with China: Nine Scenarios
Envisaging different types of drawn-out war between the USA and China.
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Space as a Gray Zone: The Future of Orbital Warfare
The ‘gray zone’ is apparent civilian behaviour which may disguise military objectives.
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Three Worlds in 2035
Three scenarios for the world’s transformation over the next decade.
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Country Risk Atlas 2025
Annual assessment of medium-term country grades, based on macroeconomic, political and structural business environment risks.
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Global Risks Report 2025
Global risks over long (10-year) and short (2-year) time horizons, using a 1-7 scale for severity and five reporting categories.
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Global Wildcards 2025–2030
Five significant wildcards could dramatically shape the global outlook and the operating environment for business.
