Politics
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Seismic shifts: The reordering of global power
Potential trajectories of the global international order using four scenarios. Link to publication Contents Scenario drivers Scenarios
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Country risk
Medium/long-term risk for export transactions, closely associated with OECD’s country risk classification.
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Roadmap to Net-Zero Aligned Carbon Market Regulation
Six key pillars for the design or reform of the regulation of carbon markets.
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Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Next Chapter
Four scenarios for the trajectory of the war.
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War in the Twenty-First Century
Seven interlocking themes about key aspects of modern warfare.
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How Beijing might rule the South China Sea within a decade
‘Backcasting’ from an imaginary scenario in 1935.
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Rethinking the Threat: Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan
Four main considerations that make an invasion of Taiwan politically and militarily dangerous for the PRC leadership.
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Scenarios for the Israeli Occupation of Palestine
Outlook for the next 5-10 years using four scenarios.
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The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth
Outlook to 2047 using Office for National Statistics figures with three variants.