Thinking Through Protracted War with China: Nine Scenarios

Envisaging different types of drawn-out war between the USA and China.

Link to publication

Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. How the United States got into and out of the business of planning for protracted war
  3. Scenarios
  4. Conclusion

Scenarios

  1. Great game redux.
  2. Under African skies.
  3. Economic and political warfare at scale (a fight for information).
  4. Lost in space.
  5. Russia nukes itself.
  6. Global (non-nuclear) missile duel.
  7. Dueling blockades (and Taipei airlift).
  8. Power grab in the Indian ocean.
  9. Proxy war in Southeast Asia.

Types of protracted, non-nuclear scenario

  1. Wars between proxies.
  2. Wars on third-party territories.
  3. Wars with limited objectives or with materiel constraints.
  4. Wars with negotiated constraints on escalation.